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Gold steadied after three days of losses on Tuesday but remained under pressure as the dollar was well bid on expectations the Federal Reserve could still raise U.S. rates this year. Gold touched its highest level in 3-1/2 months last week on bets the Fed will not raise U.S. rates amid concerns about the global economy. But the rally lost steam after robust U.S. economic data, and as gold failed to surge past the key $1,200 level. The Fed holds two more policy meets this year: next week and in December. Market expectations for a rate hike have shifted to next year in recent weeks.

LME copper opened at USD 5,276/mt overnight and then fell back to USD 5,252/mt. Later, LME copper dived to USD 5,203/mt and ended at USD 5,212/mt, down USD 60/mt. Trading volumes fell 851 to 11,753 lots and positions dropped 887. LME copper inventories posted modest growth but Asian inventories printed losses, a sign of continuous inflow to China. Poor data from China and sell-offs on LME copper during European and US trading hours will curtail base metal prices. LME copper will move in USD 5,185-5,250/mt during Asian trading hours. SHFE 1512 copper will range between RMB 39,000-39,300/mt on October20.

ENERGY NEWS

Oil prices rebounded in Asian trade on Tuesday as traders covered short positions after prices fell at least 3 percent in the previous session, but gains were capped by worries about oversupply and the health of the global economy. Iran boosting crude production when international sanctions are lifted and weaker economic growth in China, the world's second-largest economy, weighed on markets, Le Brun said. Iran plans to increase crude production by 500,000 barrels per day within a week of the lifting of sanctions, a senior Iranian oil official was quoted as saying on Monday, selling the oil to traditional customers in Asia and Europe.

CS GOLD (DECEMBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 27200
RESIST 1: 27060
SUP 1: 26840
SUP 2: 26700
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

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Gold hovered below a 3-1/2-month high on Friday after strong U.S. inflation data supported the dollar, but the metal was set to post its biggest weekly jump in four weeks on bets the Federal Reserve will not hike interest rates this year. The data provided some relief to the dollar, which has been battered by a run of poor U.S. indicators, helping it move away from seven-week lows hit earlier in the week. Many Fed watchers are exasperated by the mixed messages from the U.S. central bank in recent weeks. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and other officials have said they expect a rate hike will be needed by the end of this year, but two Fed governors this week urged caution.

LME copper dipped to USD 5,280/mt due to US dollar rise but later rolled back all the losses, tracing crude oil prices, to end at USD 5,325.5/mt, up by USD 19.5/mt. Both positions and trading volumes posted a growth. LME copper stocks extended losses. China September new loans surge to RMB 1.05 trillion but M2 supply growth slows to 13.1% YoY, leaving room for additional pro-growth measures. Economic figures from US are mixed and crude oil price volatility intensifies. LME copper should move in USD 5305-5,355/mt during Asian trading hours. India-born Vedanta Resources has no plan for zinc output cut, according to the company’s Chief Executive Officer.

ENERGY NEWS

Crude oil futures rose on Friday to snap a week-long fall, as U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories dropped more than expected. Oil markets were also supported as Asian shares got a bright start on Friday, catching some of Wall Street’s shine after upbeat U.S. price and jobless claims data calmed some recent concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, investors are waiting for China’s latest economic growth data scheduled to be released on Monday.

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Gold held near a 3-1/2-month high on Thursday as sluggish economic data from China and the United States stoked speculation the Federal Reserve will not raise rates this year. Data on Wednesday showed U.S. retail sales barely rose in September and producer prices recorded their biggest decline in eight months, indicating the economy was losing momentum amid slowing global growth. Investors believe the weakening backdrop in the U.S. and elsewhere may cause Fed policymakers to delay the first rate increase in nearly a decade, earlier expected late in 2015.

LME copper opened at USD 5,239.5/mt overnight and then tested a low of USD 5,230/mt. Near session’s end, LME copper jumped thanks to softer dollar and ended USD 56/mt higher at USD 5,306/mt. Positions increased 3,038 to 306,221. LME copper inventories have dropped below 297,175 mt. SHFE 1512 copper opened higher at RMB 39,750/mt for night trading Wednesday in response to LME copper. The contract fell to test RMB 39,720/mt but later shot up to RMB 39,980/mt, to close at RMB 39,940/mt, gaining RMB 230/mt or 0.58%. Positions increased 1,570 to 232,310 and trading volumes were around 160,000 lots.

ENERGY NEWS

Crude oil futures extended their losses on Thursday after notching up declines every day so far this week, hit by growing U.S. stockpiles and an expanding global glut. U.S. oil remained under pressure as the focus turns to U.S. crude inventories. The sustained period of lower crude oil prices has started to impact the credit profile of companies," ANZ said in a note on Thursday. Data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude inventories rose by 9.4 million barrels in the week to Oct. 9 to 465.96 million, compared with analyst expectations for an increase of 2.8 million barrels.

Gold held just below a three-month high on Wednesday, bolstered by a weaker dollar and comments from Federal Reserve officials cautioning against a rate hike this year. The Fed had refrained from hiking rates at its September meeting citing concerns about the global economy, though Fed Chair Janet Yellen had said later that the central bank was on track to raise rates this year. However, a weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls report earlier this month prompted the market to shift expectations of a Fed rate hike to 2016 and sell the dollar.

LME copper started Asian trading hours at USD 5,292/mt and then tested support at the 5-day moving average during European and US trading hours with crude oil prices falling from highs. Finally, LME copper ended down USD 51/mt at USD 5,250/mt. Positions increased 2,739 to 303,183 and trading volumes were around 12,884 lots. LME copper stocks in Asia declined 2,600 mt to 300,600 mt, showing signs of flowing into Chinese market. A slip in LME copper allowed SHFE 1512 copper to start lower at RMB 39,700/mt on Tuesday night. But later crude oil prices ended down almost 2% and this led to SHFE copper to retreat all the gains.

ENERGY NEWS

Crude oil futures slipped on Wednesday, extending losses from the prior session when an International Energy Agency report said the market would stay oversupplied for at least another year. Prices should remain low...the main reason for that is because global supply and demand for crude did not change much over the past few weeks or even months. We are still in oversupply," Daniel Ang, an investment analyst at Phillip Futures Pte Ltd. As the oil market remains over supplied, Saudi Arabia failed to attract offers for additional oil cargoes for loading in October, industry sources said.

CS GOLD (DECEMBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2: 27440
RESIST 1: 27300
SUP 1: 27000
SUP 2: 26800
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CS SILVER (DECEMBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2:37850
RESIST 1:37730
SUP1:37150
SUP2:36750
STRATEGY : BUY ON DIPS

CS CRUDE OIL (OCTOBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2:3150
RESIST 1:3100
SUP1:3000
SUP2:2960
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

CS NATURAL GAS (OCTOBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND :BEARISH
RESIST 2:167
RESIST 1:165
SUP1: 161
SUP2:159
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

BASE METAL

CS COPPER (AUGUST ) OVERVIEW:

TREND :BULLISH
RESIST 2:352
RESIST 1:350
SUP1:345
SUP2:341
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

Gold steadied near a three-month high on Tuesday, as investors pushed back expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike to next year and on a weaker dollar. The U.S. central bank refrained from hiking rates at its last meeting in September. It holds two more policy meets in 2015: on Oct. 27-28, and then in December. The Fed should hold off on any rate hike until it is clear that a global slowdown, trouble in China and other international risks will not push the U.S. recovery off course, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said on Monday in one of the strongest defenses yet of a go-slow approach to rate policy.

LME copper opened at USD 5,298/mt overnight and then fell back from high responding to crude oil prices, to end at USD 5,301/mt, edging up USD 1/mt. Positions grew 4,826 but trading volumes fell more than 17,000 lots. With a slump in crude oil prices, LME copper will move in USD 5,280-5,330/mt during Asian trading hours. SHFE 1512 copper should range between RMB 39,800-40,300/mt on October 13 and spot discounts of RMB 0-50/mt is expected over SHFE 1510 copper. Then the red metal stabilized around RMB 39,900/mt and closed at RMB 39,910/mt, Positions declined 394 to 226,416 and trading volumes were around 140,000 lots.

ENERGY NEWS

Crude oil futures climbed on Tuesday, buoyed by light bargain-hunting after U.S. and Brent crude in the previous session posted their biggest daily percentage declines since the start of September. But a supply surplus and expectations of higher crude inventory stockplies in the United States limited gains. A preliminary Reuter’s survey, taken ahead of weekly inventory reports from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), showed a crude stock build of 2.8 million barrels on average in the week ended Oct. 9.

CS GOLD (DECEMBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2: 26940
RESIST 1: 26860
SUP 1: 26500
SUP 2: 26335
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CS SILVER (DECEMBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2:37400
RESIST 1:37150
SUP1:36440
SUP2:36100
STRATEGY : BUY ON DIPS

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Gold ticked higher on Friday, recovering modestly from overnight losses, but uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve would hike U.S. rates this year weighed on the market. The Fed thought the economy was close to warranting an interest rate hike in September but policymakers wanted firmer evidence a global economic slowdown was not knocking America off course. Most policymakers, according to the minutes, thought the Fed's first rate hike in a decade should still come this year and that financial market turmoil had not "materially altered" the outlook for the U.S. economy.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has revised the copper forecast for 2016. It now anticipates the metal market to turn into deficit during the next ye3ar. According to the latest report released Tuesday, the world copper body stated that copper will end in a supply deficit of 130,000 mt during 2016. ICSG in its earlier forecast during April this year had stated that copper market is likely to see supply surplus of 230,000 mt in 2016. However, in the wake of ongoing production cutbacks and mine disruptions at various mines across the world, the supply is expected to fall to a deficit of nearly 130,000 mt during next year.

ENERGY NEWS

Crude oil futures rose in early Asian trade on thin volumes after an influential forecaster predicted that a market rally was not far off and U.S. Federal Reserve minutes suggested there was no hurry to raise rates. U.S. crude is heading for a gain of nearly 9 percent this week, the biggest weekly increase since August. Gains in Chinese equities on Thursday, opening after a weeklong National Day holiday, added to the bullish tone, while Russia's military involvement in Syria has brought a geopolitical risk premium into the market.

CS GOLD (DECEMBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 26800
RESIST 1: 26600
SUP 1: 26230
SUP 2: 26025
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

CS SILVER (DECEMBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2:37370
RESIST 1:37125
SUP1:36360
SUP2:36000
STRATEGY : SELL ON RISE

CS CRUDE OIL (OCTOBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2:3420
RESIST 1:3330
SUP1:3180
SUP2:3120
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CS NATURAL GAS (OCTOBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND :BEARISH
RESIST 2:167
RESIST 1:164
SUP1: 160
SUP2:158
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

BASE METAL

CS COPPER (AUGUST ) OVERVIEW:

TREND :BEARISH
RESIST 2:350
RESIST 1:347
SUP1:337
SUP2:334
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

Gold was little changed just below a near-two-week high on Thursday, as the dollar firmed and traders awaited minutes of the last Federal Reserve policy meeting for clues about the timing of a U.S. rate hike. The return of top consumer China from a week-long holiday could also lend support to prices on Thursday. A softer dollar would make gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, while a delay in rate hike could also support non-interest-paying bullion.  Gold has benefited in recent years from ultra-low rates, which cut the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

Copper prices have slumped almost 10% in the third quarter of the current year. The prices have fallen almost 20% from the start of the year. But the worse is not yet over for the metal. The investment bank predicts further sell-off in copper during the last quarter of the year. According to Barclays, copper prices are likely to average at $4,850 per tonne during the final quarter of the year. The rise in copper production is likely to aggravate the surplus situation, which may accelerate the price fall. Barclay’s forecasts copper market surplus at 380 kilotons’ at end-2015.

ENERGY NEWS

Crude oil futures rose in early Asian trade on Thursday, shrugging off a surprise build in U.S. inventories as some Chinese traders returned following a weeklong National Day holiday period. Another concern lingering on investors’ minds is whether the global economy is experiencing a downturn. Those fears were stoked by a report from the IMF that China’s slowdown and tumbling commodity prices will push global economic growth this year to the lowest level since the 2009 recession. The IMF expects Chinese economic growth to drop to a 25-year low of 6.8 percent this year, unchanged from its July forecast.

CS GOLD (DECEMBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 26850
RESIST 1: 26730
SUP 1: 26370
SUP 2: 26200

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Copper gave back a bit of its gains to trade at 2.341 as traders were a bit disappointed that China did not announce additional stimulus plans today. Copper jumped yesterday after New York opened, as growing expectations of loose monetary policy in the United States prevailing for longer than expected convinced some consumers to hedge their needs and persuaded funds to cover shorts. Copper plunged by 1.2 percent and dropped to 6-year low on Monday as data showed earnings by industrial companies in China.

ENERGY NEWS

Crude oil futures rose further in thin Asian trade on Wednesday after breaking out of a month-long trading range on a forecast suggesting a global glut in supply may be easing. Global oil demand is expected to increase by the most in six years as supply from non-OPEC countries stalls, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Short Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday. OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri told an industry conference in London on Tuesday that the market is improving, suggesting the grouping is unlikely to change its strategy of defending market share.

CS GOLD (DECEMBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2: 27020
RESIST 1: 26840
SUP 1: 26600
SUP 2: 26390
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CS SILVER (DECEMBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2:38020
RESIST 1:37700
SUP1:37070
SUP2:36500
STRATEGY : BUY ON DIPS

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Gold was holding just below its highest in a week on Tuesday as investors bet last week's sluggish U.S. nonfarm payrolls data would deter the Federal Reserve from hiking rates this year. The sluggishness in the U.S. economy, along with weakness in China and volatility in financial markets, could prompt the Fed to hold rates, analysts have said. Members of South Africa's Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union will decide whether to strike at operations of gold companies at a mass meeting on Oct. 11, a spokesman said on Monday.

Copper futures moved to $2.4340, up $0.0175, or 0.75%. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange traded up 0.7 percent to $5,134 a tonne in official rings. Also, optimism by Japan's Pan Pacific Copper that copper prices will rise to $6,000 a tonne over the next 18 months, driven by global production cuts and demand growth in Asia, although any upside will be limited in 2015. Further, estimates of favorable German Factory Orders data will act as a positive factor.

Crude oil prices rose in early Asia trade, adding to gains in the previous session, after Russia signaled it was willing to meet with other big oil producers to discuss the market following the decline in prices in the last quarter. Gains were limited with investors awaiting U.S. government data on crude inventories this week. Some analysts are predicting the data will show further builds in crude stocks, putting oil prices under renewed pressure. A separate meeting between Russian and Saudi officials was being planned for the end of October, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak has said.

Gold retained gains from its biggest daily jump in nearly nine months on Monday as weak U.S. jobs data eased fears the Federal Reserve will hike rates this year. The data raised new doubts on whether the economy was strong enough for the Fed to raise interest rates by the end of this year. Gold, which had been weighed down all year by expectations the U.S. central bank could soon raise rates, rallied as the dollar fell. The metal is still down nearly 4 percent this year.

Last week, LME Copper prices jumped by 1.5 percent and rebounded from six year lows as bearish investors closed out positions at the quarter-end and ahead of Chinese holidays. Also, supply disruptions from top producing countries Chile and Peru lift sentiment in beaten down sector. Chile's second-biggest copper mine Collahuasi, owned by Anglo American and Glencore, said on Tuesday it planned to cut output by 30,000 tonnes. We expect Copper prices to trade higher today as supply disruption concerns from top producing countries Chile and Peru will be supportive.

Saudi Arabia's decision to lower prices for oil loading in November shows that the battle for market share in an over-supplied Asian crude market is far from over. Saudi Aramco, the kingdom's state-owned oil company, cut its official selling price (OSP) for its main Arab Light grade to Asia to a discount of $1.60 a barrel to the regional benchmark Oman/Dubai price for November from a premium of 10 cents for October cargoes. Crude prices edged up on Monday after Russia said it was prepared to meet other producers to discuss the situation in the global oil market, while a report showed a fifth weekly decline in the U.S. oil rig count.

CS GOLD (OCTOBER) OVERVIEW:

TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2: 26930
RESIST 1: 26750
SUP 1: 26055
SUP 2: 25955
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

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